Calgary’s municipal election is heating up — and the latest numbers show it’s anybody’s game. While incumbent Jyoti Gondek holds a slight lead in the polls, the real frontrunner right now is uncertainty.
Here’s where the candidates stand:
Jyoti Gondek: 15%
Jeromy Farkas: 14%
Sonya Sharp: 8%
Jeff Davison: 6%
Brian Thiessen: 3%
Undecided voters: a whopping 45%
That undecided block is the biggest wildcard. Even among those most likely to vote, 41% haven’t made up their minds — which means momentum over the next few weeks could shift everything.
Who Has the Edge?
Right now, Gondek and Farkas are essentially tied. Gondek benefits from name recognition (74% awareness) and leads among residents who think the city is headed in the right direction. But that group only makes up one-third of Calgarians. The majority — 57% — say Calgary is on the wrong track. And among them, Farkas leads.
Farkas also scores the highest approval rating (49%) among voters who know him, just ahead of Sharp (48%) and Davison (47%). Gondek trails at 37%.
Who’s Showing Up?
The voter base leans older and wealthier:
87% of voters aged 55+ say they’re likely to vote
70% of those earning over $100k say they’ll definitely vote
Gondek performs best among those who think Calgary is doing well — but that’s not the dominant mood. Farkas gains ground with the frustrated majority.
What Matters to Voters?
The top issues heading into October:
Lowering taxes (43%)
Fiscal restraint (25%)
Reducing poverty (23%)
Voters are watching for candidates who can speak to both economic discipline and social responsibility — a tricky balance.
The Bottom Line
Calgary’s mayoral race is wide open. Gondek and Farkas are neck and neck, but with nearly half the electorate still undecided, this election will be decided not just by who leads now — but by who can lock in support over the next six weeks.
The question isn’t who’s winning today — it’s who can seize the moment.
