It's official. Elections Alberta has approved a citizen initiative petition that could put Alberta's future as a Canadian province directly to voters.

The letter landed December 22, 2025. By January 2, the Alberta Prosperity Project will be authorized to start collecting signatures on a question that would have been unthinkable a generation ago:

"Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?"

What Happens Now

A seven-day public notice period runs from December 23 to 29. After that, organizers have four months to collect at least 178,000 valid signatures from Alberta residents. Hit that threshold, and the province is legally required to hold a referendum.

This isn't the first attempt. Earlier this year, a court struck down a previous version over constitutional wording issues. The provincial government quietly amended the rules via Bill 14, and the Alberta Prosperity Project came back with revised language.

This time, it passed.

But even if the petition succeeds and a referendum happens and Albertans vote "yes" that still doesn't mean Alberta leaves. Canada's Constitution has no exit clause. A yes vote would trigger negotiations, not independence. Think Quebec 1995: even a successful referendum would have meant years of legal and political battles with Ottawa.

The Counter-Petition Already Succeeded

Here's the twist: there's already a successful petition on the other side. The "Alberta Forever Canada" campaign, led by former provincial cabinet minister Thomas Lukaszuk, collected over 438,000 verified signatures asking Albertans whether they want to remain in Canada.

So both camps now have approved petitions. The battle lines are drawn.

The 51st State Question

Independence isn't the only option on the table at least not in some circles.

Since Donald Trump began floating the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state, a vocal minority in Alberta has embraced the concept. Polling from the Angus Reid Institute earlier this year showed about 18% of Albertans were open to annexation the highest of any province, though still a clear minority.

But enthusiasm runs hotter on the ground. At a May 2025 rally outside the Alberta Legislature in Edmonton, crowds gathered waving split American-Canadian flags and wearing "Alberta, USA" jerseys. In June, hundreds packed a sports facility in Red Deer for an independence rally where attendees sported "Make Alberta Great Again" hats and "Alberta Republic" t-shirts. A billboard along the highway between Calgary and Edmonton urged drivers to tell Premier Danielle Smith that Alberta should "Join the USA!"

The separatist movement is split on the question. Most say they want full sovereignty an independent Alberta, not an American state. But others see the U.S. as a necessary ally, particularly if negotiations with Ottawa turn hostile.

Washington Is Paying Attention

This spring, a delegation of Alberta separatists traveled to Washington to meet with Trump administration officials. According to Dennis Modry, former CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, those meetings went further than most realize.

Modry claims U.S. officials discussed a $500 million transition loan to help Alberta separate from Canada, along with a currency support plan where the U.S. would exchange Canadian dollars held by Albertans for American dollars at par. Whether any of that materializes remains speculative but the fact that those conversations allegedly happened at all signals how seriously some in Washington are taking this.

The America Fund, an organization that openly advocates for Alberta becoming the 51st state, has been sponsoring separatist events across the province.

The Betting Markets Are Watching

This story has gone international. On Polymarket, where users bet real money on political outcomes, the odds of a Canadian province scheduling a secession referendum before 2027 have surged to 46% up 34% in recent weeks.

International money is now riding on whether Alberta actually goes through with this.

Why Alberta, Why Now

Alberta produces roughly 95% of Canada's oil. For years, frustration over equalization payments, carbon policy, and what many see as federal overreach has fueled western alienation. The re-election of the federal Liberals under Mark Carney in April 2025 despite Alberta voting overwhelmingly Conservative poured gasoline on that fire.

Premier Danielle Smith has walked a careful line. She's pushed back against Trump's annexation talk, saying Albertans aren't keen to "trade a bad relationship with Ottawa for a bad relationship with Washington." But her government passed Bill 14, which cleared the path for this very petition to move forward.

What It Means

Even if the petition fails to gather enough signatures, the approval itself sends a message. Alberta's independence movement has graduated from fringe grievance to formal democratic process.

And if it succeeds? Then Albertans get to answer a question that's been simmering for decades while Americans watch from the sidelines, some of them hoping the answer is "yes."

The clock starts January 2.