The Alberta NDP has flipped Calgary-Shaw, winning a riding held by the United Conservative Party since 2019.
NDP candidate Kyle Campbell received 7,461 votes, defeating UCP candidate Mike Derry by 582 votes, according to unofficial results released after all voting locations reported Monday night.
The seat became vacant in May when UCP MLA and former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz resigned, triggering Monday's byelection.
Derry finished with 6,879 votes. Campbell captured approximately 46.6 per cent of the 16,002 valid votes counted, compared with Derry's 43 per cent.
The results remain unofficial until Elections Alberta completes its official count on September 24.
Calgary-Shaw's margin shifted by nearly 4,000 votes
Schulz won Calgary-Shaw by 3,379 votes in the 2023 provincial election, taking 13,970 votes to NDP candidate David Cloutier's 10,591.
Moving from a 3,379-vote UCP margin in 2023 to a 582-vote NDP margin represents a 3,961-vote shift in the margin between the two parties.
It also gives the NDP the riding for the first time since 2015.
Why the result matters
Calgary-Shaw covers several fast-growing communities in south Calgary and has been represented by a conservative party in every provincial election except 2015.
The NDP has recently found more success in Calgary's inner city and northeast than in suburban ridings such as Calgary-Shaw. Schulz won the seat in both 2019 and 2023 and served in the UCP cabinet.
Flipping a south Calgary constituency therefore gives the NDP more than another seat. It suggests the party can compete beyond the parts of Calgary where it has traditionally performed best.
Advance ballots decided the result
The race remained close throughout Monday evening and wasn't settled until advance ballots were added after 10:30 p.m.
NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi told supporters the result showed "there are no safe conservative seats in Calgary."
Premier Danielle Smith congratulated Campbell and thanked Derry after the result became clear.
"The voters of Calgary-Shaw have spoken and our UCP government will work constructively with their new MLA to ensure their constituency's needs are fully addressed," Smith wrote.
Fewer people voted than in 2023
The result came with substantially lower participation than the last provincial election.
A total of 16,002 valid votes were counted Monday, compared with 24,797 in Calgary-Shaw during the 2023 election. That's a drop of approximately 35 per cent.
Advance voting also declined. Elections Alberta reported 6,955 advance voters, representing 16.4 per cent of eligible electors. In 2023, 9,798 people voted in advance in the riding.
Byelections typically draw fewer voters than general elections, and single-riding results are an unreliable guide to how a province votes in a general election.
Five weeks before Alberta's referendum
The loss comes five weeks before Alberta's province-wide referendum on October 19.
Albertans will answer 10 questions covering immigration, proposed constitutional changes and whether Alberta should remain in Canada or begin the legal process required to hold a future binding vote on independence.
The October 19 ballot will not itself separate Alberta from Canada. The separation question is non-binding and asks whether the provincial government should begin the legal process toward a later binding referendum.
Mount Royal University political scientist Keith Brownsey described Calgary-Shaw as a potential bellwether before the vote. He said anything short of a decisive UCP victory could indicate dissatisfaction with the governing party.
Campbell's victory may increase pressure on the UCP heading into the referendum campaign.
Who ran in Calgary-Shaw
Campbell made health care a central part of his campaign.
Derry, an oil and gas executive, campaigned on affordability, education, health care and government transparency.
Three other candidates appeared on the ballot:
Kyle Joseph, Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta
John Roggeveen, Alberta Liberal Party
Rolly Ashdown, Independent
Together, candidates other than Campbell and Derry received 1,662 votes, nearly three times the winning margin.
What happens next
Campbell becomes the new MLA for Calgary-Shaw, which includes Shawnessy, Somerset, Silverado, Yorkville, Belmont, Pine Creek, Chaparral, Walden, Wolf Willow and Legacy.
Elections Alberta will confirm the official result on September 24.
Sources
Elections Alberta, Calgary-Shaw byelection results
Elections Alberta, 2023 provincial election results
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